Wednesday, November 24, 2010

630 Million Pesos and Your Chances of Grabbing It


630 million pesos (as of date posted) seems a lot. Hell yeah it is. You may feel lucky and you may definitely be lucky but are you lucky enough?

What am I talking about? This is a fun statistics post. I'm no statistics or math expert by a long shot but its actually pretty easy to put into numbers how lucky you should be to get that jackpot prize. So what exactly is your chances of winning?

1 in 28,989,675.

So let's take a boring look into the computation on how we got that. For the first number your odds are 1/55 second 1/54 and you get the point. So multiplying 1/55 x 1/54 x 1/53 x 1/52 x 1/51 x 1/50 or just multiplying the 50s since were lazy and all. Its 1/20872566000.

Hey cheer up! Its not 28,989,675 yet. So what do we do with 20,872,566,000? Since the exact order isn't important we can divide the number by 720 which is 6 factorial or the number of ways 6 numbers can be arranged.

Now we have 28,989,675. Still feeling lucky? 

Or did you ever have the idea that you'd bet on every possible combination. Well I thought of it and here is the chances. Since the number of possible combinations is 28,989,675 and every bet is 20 pesos. It would take 579,793,500 pesos to bet on every possible combination. Since your saying its 630m jackpot you'd still get some return (along with the winnings of the lower combinations). Feel free to try it. Oh and there's still a chance that someone else will have the same combination and you get to split the jackpot how lucky.

I'm actually betting one 6 number combination. Hey who knows I might be that lucky!

Lets put other fun statistics/probability trivia here. We can't really be sure if any of this is true but hey big numbers and probabilty always sounds true :D

Odds of becoming a saint: 20,000,000 to 1 
Odds of becoming president: 10,000,000 to 1 
Odds of dating a supermodel: 88,000 to 1
Odds of being killed by lightning: 2,320,000 to 1 
Odds of drowning in a bathtub: 685,000 to 1 
(I dont know how they computed this. Ask science)
Odds of being an astronaut: 13,200,000 to 1
Odds of injury from shaving: 6,585 to 1 
(Interesting I already had 2 shaving accidents I wonder if that counts
as being lucky)


Sources:
http://webmath.com/lottery.html